Forest Loss Dynamics And Transformative Adaptation: A Socio-Ecological And Geospatial Analysis Of Udi Forest, Nigeria

Abstract

This study examined the dynamics of forest loss in Udi Forest, Enugu State, Nigeria, by integrating geospatial analysis and socio-economic data, and assessed its implications for climate risk through the lens of transformative adaptation. While previous studies on deforestation in Nigeria have largely focused on land-cover dynamics or socio-economic drivers in isolation, limited attention has been paid to integrating long-term geospatial analysis with local-level perceptions to assess climate risk implications. To address this gap, a mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining geospatial techniques with socio-economic data. Primary data were obtained from 100 randomly administered questionnaires, key informant interviews, participant observation, and field photography. Land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes were analyzed using multi-temporal satellite imagery (2003–2023) at 30 m spatial resolution. Supervised classification yielded an overall accuracy of 87% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.83, indicating strong reliability. The results reveal significant landscape transformation over the two-decade period. Vegetation cover declined markedly from 65.00% in 2003 to 25.75% in 2023, while bare surfaces increased from 32.14% to 63.00%. Built-up areas expanded from 2.07% to 11.25%, reflecting intensified human activities and urban encroachment. Notably, water bodies, which constituted 0.50% of the study area in 2003, had completely disappeared by 2023. These patterns indicate rapid deforestation and ecosystem degradation driven primarily by unsustainable land-use practices. The environmental consequences include biodiversity loss, heightened soil erosion, ecosystem instability, and increased local temperature variability. By linking these changes to broader climate risks, the study highlights the need for transformative adaptation strategies that address structural drivers of deforestation. Such strategies should prioritize inclusivity, cross-scale governance, and long-term sustainability pathways to enhance ecological resilience and support climate adaptation in vulnerable forest landscapes.