Analysis Of The Effect Of Population Growth On Land Surface Temperature In Lokoja Metropolis

Abstract

Understanding the impact of population growth on trends in Land Surface Temperature (LST) necessitates a comprehensive examination of changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC). As populations expand, various land covers undergo alterations to meet escalating demands. This study seeks to evaluate the hypothesis that population growth influences LST trends. Population data for Lokoja spanning 1991-2021, sourced from the United Nations World Population Review, was analyzed alongside LULC changes utilizing Landsat 5TM, 7ETM+, and Landsat 9 OLI/TIRS images. Five classes—Built-up areas, Vegetation, Waterbodies, Rock outcrops, and Bare land surface—were classified to signify population growth and changes. LST trends were derived using the Radiative Transfer Method, with yearly averages calculated. Analysis revealed a remarkable urban growth of over 200% in Lokoja from 1991 to 2021, juxtaposed with a declining natural vegetation cover of -18%. Built-up areas showed commensurate growth, driven by increased housing demand. Regression analysis confirmed a significant relationship between population growth and LST trends (multiple R = 0.905), with strong coefficients indicating this association. The study underscores the substantial population increase and consequential land cover alterations in the region, alongside observable shifts in LST trends. Notably, built-up areas emerged as prominent contributors to LST, prompting recommendations for the adoption of reflective roofing materials to mitigate urban heat islands and the preservation of green spaces to counterbalance urbanization effects.